作者：张进, 李世平, 马超

作者单位：第二炮兵工程学院, 陕西西安 710025

关键词：计量检定; 标准; 虚拟预测; 组合预测; 调整优化; 模型参数

摘要：

针对计量器具长时间使用以及在各种环境条件的影响下其精度会逐渐下降的状况,采用虚拟预测理论建立某计量标准精度变化的组合预测模型,科学地描绘了该计量标准的精度变化规律,为实施计量标准质量监测过程控制提供理论依据。虚拟预测利用近期已知数据调整和优化预测模型的参数,达到了检验模型准确性、减小真正预测误差的目的,提高了预测精度。实例结论表明,虚拟预测方式的预测精度高于传统拟合模型,达到了预期效果。

Linear combined forecasting model based on virtual forecasting

ZHANG Jin, LI Shi-ping, MA Chao

The Second Artillery Engineering College, Xi'an 710025, China

Abstract: In allusion to the worse of the precision after the using of the standard instrument and the influence of the various environments, the authors adopted the virtual forecasting theory, established combined forecasting model of the standard instrument, described the changing law of the precision of the standard instrument scientifically, and provided the theoretical basis for controlling the process for quality inspectability of the standard instrument.The virtual forecasting method adjusts and optimizes the parameters of forecasting model by utilizing the given data at short-term time.This method achieved the purpose of checking the accuracy of the model and reducing the real forecasting error, and advanced the forecasting precision.The conclusion showed that the virtual forecasting method had many advantage over the traditional fitting model, received the predictive effective.

Keywords: Metrological verification; Standards; Virtual forecasting; Combined forecasting; Adjustment and optimization; Model parameter

2009, 35(5): 38-40,47  收稿日期: 2009-3-25;收到修改稿日期: 2009-6-12

基金项目: 

作者简介: 张进(1983-),男,硕士,专业方向为检测技术与自动化装置。

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